Coronavirus in IRAN. A serious threat to Indian Subcontinent and Middle East
Updated: Sep 12, 2021
Last night while I was talking to my family I was discussing that It's not a big issue and people are exaggerating the disease, but I think we were a bit wrong about it. I must say it is now a serious issue, at least at the global level.
Last night I came across an article published in a leading middle eastern news-agency about the outbreak of coronavirus in Iran. This article showed how much severely this coronavirus is affecting Iran. Iran has recently freed about 85000 prisoners due to COVID-19 outbreak.
I feel that the major issue with Iran is that people are not cooperating in this regard, and ignoring various guidelines and suggestions from the government. for example in Mashhad's Imam Reza shrine and Qom's Fatima Masumeh shrine people gather and come 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and people typically touch and kiss the shrine. When on the suggestion of healthcare officials government announced the closure of shrine over state-run TV, people started demonstrating against this [1]. This shows people's ignorance towards this health crisis and the failure of the government for proper awareness.
The Iranian state journalist, Dr. Afruz Eslami, cited a study by Tehran’s prestigious Sharif University of Technology, which offered three scenarios [2].
If people begin to cooperate now, Iran will see 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths before the outbreak is over.
If they offer medium cooperation, there will be 300,000 cases and 110,000 deaths.
But if people fail to follow any guidance, it could collapse Iran’s already-strained medical system, Eslami said. If the “medical facilities are not sufficient, there will be 4 million cases, and 3.5 million people will die.
Globally everyone knows Iran is a sinking economy and have a hell lot of sanctions imposed on it by various organizations. With this economic crunch, I personally feel that Iran will not be able to cope with COVID-19 for too long.
If you see the top COVID-19 affected countries you may start noticing a trend. Almost all (seriously all) top affected countries in the list are developed countries, except one "IRAN". Now you may start feeling the depth of the situation. The below-mentioned data is from Iran's official channels, and media in Iran is not free at all, so the numbers might be very high.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
If we consider the worst possible case, i.e. in Iran's complete collapse, the situation will become disastrous for neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other middle-eastern countries. The US has already applied several sanctions on Iran so far and Iran is already facing economic difficulties. In this scenario I don't think Iran would be capable to cope with the virus, for too much time. So, for time being the condition of Iran must be taken seriously by global leaders. Revoking the sanctions for some time may help Iran fight economic crisis, ultimately helping the world in fight against common enemy COVID-19.
Source: Google Maps https://www.google.com/maps
Now in the above map, you can clearly see if Pakistan and Afghanistan fails to tackle this outbreak our lovely INDIA will be exposed to this deadly virus. Pakistan is already handling COVID-19 very poorly as you can see in below (data on 18-March-2020)-
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
As of today (18-March-2020) India have 147 cases so far, considering the population of Pakistan and India the situation of Pakistan is way worse than of India now. There is a relief that the Cooperation of China and Pakistan will give some fruitful outcomes in the way of preventing the outbreak, ultimately helping India by making a buffer zone between hard-hit Middle eastern countries and our lovely India.
Unlike Iran, Pakistan or any other developing countries India is way more economically and intellectually powerful and must use its capabilities to the fullest. As of now, public awareness is one of the biggest weapon humankind have to combat this enemy, and we must use it to its fullest.
Stay Safe.
Thank you for your time, please give feedback or suggestions (if any).
Ravikant Singh
Ph.D. Research Scholar, IIT Patna